Key conclusions
1. Based on EIA estimates, oil demand in Q3 2025 rose 0.8 million bbl/d compared to the previous quarter, to 104.8 million bbl/d.
Lower oil prices supported demand in OECD countries, while the demand growth in developing countries was more moderate relative to the dynamics in Q2 2025. The main factor behind the demand growth slowdown in developing countries was the seasonal oil consumption decline in India, as well as a lower demand in China.
Further growth in oil demand is expected for 2025-2026, but estimates of the pace vary from the conservative IEA forecast at 0.7 million bbl/d up to the OPEC’s optimistic estimate of 1.3–1.4 million bbl/d.
There is also no consensus on the long-term dynamics of demand in the market. Bloomberg NEF and IEA are expecting the peak oil consumption in the coming years, while oil producers ExxonMobil and OPEC are expecting the oil demand to be either stable or increasing until 2050.
2. According to EIA estimates, by the end of Q3 2025, the oil supply reached a record of 107.4 million bbl/d. At the same time, the main increase in production occurred in non-OPEC+ countries: the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina.
In September 2025, OPEC+ countries prematurely withdrew from voluntary production restrictions by 2.2 million bbl/d. OPEC+ also announced the gradual release to the market of volumes that fell under voluntary restrictions in April 2023 (1.65 million bbl/d). At the same time, according to EIA estimates, OPEC+ production is likely not to reach the level of established quotas, since many participating countries must compensate for the actual ‘overproduction’.
According to the EIA and IEA estimates, the supply growth will continue mainly due to non-OPEC+ countries. The oil supply in the market is being expected to increase by 2.7–3.0 million bbl/d in 2025. According to various estimates, the supply growth rate will slow down to 1.3–2.4 million bbl/d in 2026.
3. In Q3 2025, according to the EIA, the oil market surplus rose to 2.6 million bbl/d. The increase in supply by OPEC+ countries and countries outside the alliance (mainly the US, Brazil, Canada) coincided with a seasonal decline in demand after the summer peak.
IEA and EIA analysts predict a continued surplus in the oil market in 2025-2026, and a corresponding rise in oil reserves in commercial and strategic storage facilities. According to the EIA, the largest rise in reserves will occur in Q1 2026, and in Q2 2026 low oil prices will naturally lead to greater demand and a reduction in supply, which will slow growth of reserves.
The growing supply surplus will put downward pressure on prices, which, given varying global production costs, will exacerbate the competition between oil producers
4. In Q3 2025, the Brent crude oil price moved within the range of USD 65-74/bbl, gradually falling relative to Q2 2025. The surplus market, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US tariff policy continue to put pressure on the oil price.
According to market analysts, the trade war between China and the United States will continue to negatively affect oil quotations. Another uncertainty factor is the further dynamics of China oil purchases to replenish its reserves.
The current long-term (after 2029) consensus forecast for Brent crude oil prices is USD 68/bbl, in real terms, in 2025 prices, which is USD 1/bbl lower than the same forecast in the previous quarter.
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