By 2030, the Russian microelectronics market may grow 2.7 times to 780 billion rubles. The share of domestic manufacturers' products on the Russian microelectronics market will grow from 20% in 2023 to 45% in 2030.
Kept presents an industry study that provides a medium–term forecast of the Russian microelectronics market's development. According to Kept research, the average annual growth of the market in Russia until 2030 will be more than 15%, exceeding global dynamics. This will be facilitated by both global growth factors, such as digitalization of the economy and the introduction of new technologies, and domestic Russian trends associated with an increase in the localization of microelectronics consumption sectors, import substitution in the production of microelectronic products, as well as the implementation of state support measures.
Russian microelectronics market today
According to Kept, in 2023 the Russian microelectronics market1 grew by 38% compared to 2022 – from 210 billion rubles to 289 billion rubles. In 2020–2022, the average annual growth rate of the market was about 27% per year, which is almost twice as high as the same indicator of the global microelectronics market – 14%.
In 2022–2023, the Russian market saw a peak in consumption amid the high demand for microelectronics as a result of the introduced trade restrictions. The development of the market in Russia, as well as in the world, was also due to the digitalization of the economy and consumer experience. The use of digital solutions has increased during the coronavirus pandemic due to the need for remote communication and fast information transfer.
The volume of products produced by Russian manufacturers 2 increased by 30% in 2023 to 59 billion rubles compared to 45 billion in 2022. At the same time, the share of Russian manufacturers' accounted for about 20% of the total structure of the Russian microelectronics market. According to Kept estimates, the market for Russian manufacturers products' is highly consolidated: in 2022, the top 5 companies accounted for about 80% of revenue.
Currently, the main demand for microelectronic products in Russia is provided by industry, including urban infrastructure, housing and public utilities. According to Kept estimates, in 2023 industry is accounted for about 66% of the market in monetary terms. The lower demand from the computing infrastructure and telecommunications segments (about 12%) compared to global indicators (about 56% in 2022) is due to the low level of production localization in these segments. Consumer devices and vehicles are accounted for 12% and 10% of the total microelectronic products' consumption in 2023, respectively.
Prospects for the Russian microelectronics market development in the medium term
According to Kept's baseline scenario, by 2030 the volume of the Russian microelectronics market will grow by 2.7 times compared to 2023 – from 289 billion rubles to 780 billion rubles. At the same time, according to optimistic estimates, by 2030 the market volume could reach 1.05 trillion rubles.
The average annual growth rate of the Russian market will be more than 15%, which exceeds the forecast average annual growth rate of the global microelectronics industry in 2023–2030 (6.7% in the baseline scenario, 9.6% in the optimistic scenario).
According to Kept, in the baseline scenario in 2030 the share of Russian manufacturers' products will grow from 20% in 2023 to 45% by 2030 and will amount to 351 billion rubles.
The development of the microelectronics market in Russia on the horizon until 2030 will be ensured by the deepening of the localization level of microelectronics consumption sectors production, as well as the implementation of investment projects aimed at modernizing and expanding microelectronics production with active government support as part of the import substitution strategy. It is expected that by 2030 the sectoral structure of demand for Russian microelectronics will approach the global one due to an increase in the localization of production in the computing infrastructure and telecommunications industry. However, the industry will continue to play a dominant role, its share will be about 50%.
You can download the study from the link.
Background information
The main types of microelectronic products include:
- integrated circuits – microelectronic devices in which multiple electronic components are integrated on one silicon chip;
- discrete semiconductor and power devices – separate electronic components made of semiconductor materials and designed to perform specific functions in electronic circuits (for example, transistors, diodes, thyristors, varicaps, etc.);
- sensors – devices that convert the environmental signal (temperature, illumination, pressure, movement, etc.) into an electrical signal for detecting and measuring environmental parameters;
- optoelectronics devices (photodetectors and photomatrices; LED emitters, lasers, indicators and screens; etc.), which are used to process light signals into electrical signals and vice versa.
1The subject of Kept's research is the active electronic components market.
2 Includes microcircuits developed in Russia and manufactured at both foreign and Russian factories.
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Kept study