Key conclusions
1. According to EIA estimates, in Q4 2025 global oil demand remained at the level of the previous quarter (104.5 million bbl/d). At the same time, according to various estimates, oil demand grew by 0.85–1.3 million bbl/d and stood at 103.7–105.1 million bbl/d. Non-OECD countries remained the key growth region in oil consumption.
China, as one of the major consumers of oil, not only raised its own consumption of oil, but also increased its commercial and strategic reserves, thereby supporting prices.
Over 2026–2027, according to EIA, OPEC, and IEA forecasts, the demand growth trend will continue, and annual growth will be 0.9-1.4 million bbl/d. Oil demand will be supported by the petrochemical industry, air and road transport, industry, and agriculture.
2. Based on Q4 2025 results, the global oil supply rose to 108.3 million bbl/d. During 2025 the global supply grew continuously, according to various estimates, by 2.9–3.0 million bbl/d and amounted to 107.7–108.7 million bbl/d. Supply growth was chiefly driven by non-OPEC+ countries (the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana).
In 2025 the OPEC+ alliance also increased production by lifting previously imposed restrictions.
Over 2026–2027 the EIA and IEA expect a slowdown in the growth in oil supply as a result of lower oil prices.
3. In Q4 2025 the trend towards an increasing surplus in the oil market continued. Most of the increase in oil reserves ended up in China's commercial and strategic reserves.
At the end of 2025 the average surplus was 2.6 million bbl/d, a record high over the past five years. The imbalance in the market is expected to continue over 2026–2027.
4. In Q4 2025 global oil prices continued to decline amid an increased supply and surplus. At the end of 2025 the average monthly price of Brent oil fell from a maximum of USD 79/bbl in January to a minimum of USD 63/bbl in December, the lowest since early 2021.
It is forecast that in 2026 oil prices will continue to decline amid a continuing supply surplus. Geopolitical tensions could trigger short-term price fluctuations.
The current long-term (after 2030) consensus forecast for the Brent oil price is USD 70/bbl, in real terms, in 2026 prices, which is generally in line with the long-term forecasts made by analysts in recent years.
