Key conclusions
1. The global annual growth rate of oil demand slowed due to macroeconomic uncertainty and restrictions on international trade, as well as a renewed escalation of conflict in the Middle East. However, in quarterly terms, against the background of seasonal factors in Q2 2025, oil demand rose by 0.5 million bbl/d (EIA data).
Based on 2025–2026 results, a rise in oil demand is expected, however estimates for this increase vary among IEA, EIA, and OPEC analysts.
Based on IEA and OPEC forecasts, demand for oil up until 2030 will be supported by the petrochemical industry and air transport. Analysts differ on the dynamics of consumption in the automotive sector. The IEA projects demand for petrol to decline as early as 2026, while OPEC forecasts growth in oil consumption in the automotive sector, even in the long term, despite an increase in the number of electric vehicles.
2. According to EIA estimates, the oil supply increased by 1.1 million bbl/d in Q2 2025, reaching 104.5 million bbl/d, mainly due to active production growth from OPEC+ countries and the US.
OPEC+ is rapidly ramping up production, returning most volumes previously subject to additional voluntary cuts to the market. A decision has already been made to increase the permitted production level in August by 548,000 bbl/d, and if a similar decision is made for September, the lifting of voluntary cuts will be completed a whole year ahead of the original schedule.
The rise in OPEC+ production, combined with greater production in countries outside the alliance, will lead to an increase in the oil supply on the market in 2025 by 1.8–2.1 million bbl/d, according to estimates by the EIA and the IEA. In 2026 supply growth will slow to 1.1-1.3 million bbl/d.
3. Based on EIA data, in Q2 2025 the oil market had a surplus of 1.3 million bbl/d.
EIA and IEA forecasts suggest that the oil market surplus will remain stable or even grow in 2025–2026, leading to an increase in global oil reserves, which will put pressure on prices amid slow demand growth. OPEC believes these forecasts to be too pessimistic and expects demand to strengthen and the market to balance in H2 2025.
4.On average, in Q2 2025 the price of Brent crude fell by 10.3% compared to Q1 2025. From early April to mid-June, oil prices declined due to increased OPEC+ production and restrictions on international trade. An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East in June led to a short-term rise in oil prices, however, after the ceasefire prices stabilised.
Oil price dynamics in the short term will largely depend on the geopolitical situation, the trade policies of the US and its partners, as well as demand dynamics and the presence or absence of a surplus.
The current long-term (after 2029) consensus forecast for the Brent oil price is USD 69/bbl, in real terms, in 2025 prices, which is slightly lower than the 2024 forecast of USD 71/bbl.
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