New Just: Paths to an Affordable Energy Transition in Eastern and Southern Africa

The report presents the preliminary results of a study on the construction of affordable power systems and Just energy transition in the countries of Eastern and Southern Africa. The study assessed the scale of the future electricity market of the countries and the role of various energy sources in the development of power systems. A new concept of Cost to GDP is presented, which allows for a multi-factor assessment of technologies and selects the most affordable and significant for the development of local supply chains and economies of those African countries that are just passing the path of primary electrification.

Key findings

Plan to Scale

The ESA region is the largest uncovered electricity market globally. To reach the GDP mid-income level (in accordance with the World Bank classification) by 2060, electricity generation has to increase 9 times to 5,200 TWh - the size comparable to five power systems of Russia

The Fossil Transition

This scale of transformation is only possible, if an energy mix is used. We estimate that around 60% of electricity has to come from gas and coal with the rest to be provided almost equally by nuclear and renewables

Role of energy sources

Significant upscale of gas and coal infrastructure is required to make transition happen. Nuclear helps to balance gas imports and build backbone infrastructure for midland countries. Renewables will play a role contributing with one fifth of the power mix, but targeting 100% is technically and economically unrealistic.

Climate impact

Even assuming a 60% fossil electricity share, the real change of per capita ESA’s emissions will be negligible. Electrification helps cut an inefficient usage of biomass and thus drop the households’ CO₂ emission and stop deforestation. Limits on fossil generation should not apply below 1,000 kWh/capita for coal and 2,500 kWh/capita for gas plants.

Affordability

To make electricity affordable, it is essential to reduce its costs to GDP through local supply chains for technology, workforce, financing and fuel. We estimate that real costs to GPD may be as low as 24-64 USD/MWh, i.e. 2-5 times lower than nominal costs, if the electrification is managed properly.

Manageability

The transition is challenging, but manageable. International cooperation is required to make it happen. We call the concept Five-Just’s: ensuring just energy planning, technology access, ESG and financing policies as well as equal rights to speak up at negotiations of parties.

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